Important dates:
(purple dashed lines) May 14: Stay-at-Home reversed; May 25: Memorial Day; July 4: Independence Day
(blue dashed lines) March 25: Stay-at-Home order; Aug 1: WI mask mandate
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 31 2020 | 801 | 17509 | 6 | 102 | 133 |
| September 01 2020 | 825 | 17771 | 6 | 119 | 152 |
| September 02 2020 | 838 | 18306 | 6 | 116 | 159 |
| September 03 2020 | 860 | 18448 | 6 | 132 | 173 |
| September 04 2020 | 882 | 18487 | 6 | 145 | 183 |
| September 05 2020 | 905 | 18880 | 6 | 157 | 199 |
| September 06 2020 | 941 | 18958 | 6 | 173 | 219 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ages 0-9 | 0 | 0.0 | 1% | 2 | 0.02% | 6 | 0.05% |
| Ages 10-19 | 13 | 5.1 | 21.2% | 41 | 0.3% | 48 | 0.35% |
| Ages 20-29 | 19 | 11.6 | 57.5% | 111 | 0.53% | 131 | 0.63% |
| Ages 30-39 | 0 | 0.4 | 4.1% | 8 | 0.06% | 13 | 0.1% |
| Ages 40-49 | 2 | 1.1 | 6.7% | 13 | 0.12% | 13 | 0.12% |
| Ages 50-59 | 0 | 0.6 | 4.1% | 8 | 0.06% | 11 | 0.09% |
| Ages 60-69 | 1 | 0.6 | 2.1% | 4 | 0.03% | 4 | 0.03% |
| Ages 70 or more | 1 | 0.6 | 3.1% | 6 | 0.06% | 9 | 0.09% |
| All ages | 36 | 20.0 | 100% | 193 | 0.18% | 235 | 0.22% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 31 2020 | 347 | 12089 | 0 | 54 | 68 |
| September 01 2020 | 350 | 12194 | 0 | 57 | 69 |
| September 02 2020 | 354 | 12230 | 0 | 53 | 70 |
| September 03 2020 | 364 | 12288 | 0 | 62 | 76 |
| September 04 2020 | 371 | 12430 | 0 | 67 | 78 |
| September 05 2020 | 376 | 12489 | 0 | 64 | 83 |
| September 06 2020 | 378 | 12547 | 0 | 55 | 77 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 31 2020 | 370 | 7444 | 3 | 21 | 40 |
| September 01 2020 | 372 | 7479 | 3 | 17 | 34 |
| September 02 2020 | 375 | 7504 | 3 | 15 | 30 |
| September 03 2020 | 381 | 7547 | 3 | 21 | 33 |
| September 04 2020 | 382 | 7578 | 3 | 21 | 33 |
| September 05 2020 | 385 | 7652 | 3 | 21 | 30 |
| September 06 2020 | 388 | 7695 | 3 | 23 | 28 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 31 2020 | 75603 | 1172854 | 1122 | 6544 | 9407 |
| September 01 2020 | 76584 | 1183717 | 1130 | 6575 | 9754 |
| September 02 2020 | 77129 | 1191548 | 1142 | 6667 | 9636 |
| September 03 2020 | 77856 | 1199999 | 1146 | 7002 | 9623 |
| September 04 2020 | 79354 | 1210203 | 1153 | 7862 | 10295 |
| September 05 2020 | 80300 | 1217278 | 1168 | 8040 | 10291 |
| September 06 2020 | 81193 | 1221894 | 1168 | 8055 | 10731 |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.9 | 60.7 | 20 | 9.9 | 8.8% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11.9 | 4.7 | 4 | 6.6% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.6 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 5.9% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18.4 | 35.8 | 836.6 | 681 | 10% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 24 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.35 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-09-27 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1246"